January 20th Discussion

The rain has started again Thursday as another warm front moves over us but stalls a little. We should see off and on steady rain throughout today with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow a cold front will push its way through bringing more steady rain and showers once the front passes. Tomorrow will be very similar with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Overnight lows tonight and Friday night won't be too cold, mid to upper 30s.

We start to dry out by Saturday and Sunday as a ridge sets up and it looks like right now most storms will scoot north of us, not sending any moisture our way. The models are not agreeing on this completely, with the European models having the storms just brushing us with moisture. For now we'll stick with dry but can't rule out a shower or two over the weekend. Highs will start rounding out near 50 degrees.

Some of the 5 day forecasts have been pointing at a thermal trough forming over the west coast. For you non-meteoroligists this means warm temperatures. In the middle of a La-Nina winter temperatures are forecasted near 60 degrees. This would need to verify over the next two days or so for any confidence but certainly appears to be some warming on the way for western Washington. This trough also means it will stay dry.

Longer range models show not much for the next 15 days. So enjoy the very mundane weather we will be having.

P.S. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday record temps are 58 degrees for each day. Cross your fingers for some sort of weather topic to talk about. :)

Have a great week!

January 18th Discussion

FOR ALL YOU SNOW LOVERS!! PSYCHE!! No snow in the forecast.

After dealing with snow, rain, wind, flooding, and the like for the past three months, this next week of weather will be fairly mundane. A weak weather system will pass by to our south today, spreading some rain throughout southern Washington and a few areas up North may squeak out a dry day. There isn't a lot of rain associated with the system to any rivers affected by flooding should not have extra stressed placed on them. In addition, the snow level will be dropping today to around 2000ft so there will be more snow in the mountains rather than rain. Highs today will top off in the mid 40s.

Wednesday will be a dry day, in between the next weak system. Thursday and Friday offer another rain chance but once again, it will not be a soaker and it will not be a wind maker. No real worries with that system.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday look dry as a ridge sets up over the West Coast. Highs for the next 7 days stay in the mid 40 to upper 40 range.

Like i said, mundane.

-Aaron

1/17 Rivers

Here is an updates list for river forecasts and flooding. With no more rain for the next 24 hours, or at least not heavy rain, these rivers will begin to crest and recede today. Snow levels also begin to fall.

MAJOR FLOODING FORECAST OR OCCURING

Snohomish @ Monroe
Snohomish @ Snohomish
Snoqualmie @ Carnation
Cowlitz @ Randle

MODERATE FLOODING FORECAST OR OCCURING

Skykomish
Snoqualmie @ The Falls

MINOR FLOODING FORECAST OR OCCURING

Nooksack @ Cedarville
SF Nooksack @ Saxon Bridge
Skagit @ Concrete
Skagit @ Mt. Vernon
Stilliguamish
Cedar River @ Renton
Cedar River @ Landsburg
Upper Green River
Puyallup @ Orting
Yakima @ Easton
Skokomish
Skookumchuck @ Bucoda
Chehalis @ Porter
Chehalis @ Grand Mound

January 12th

Yesterday evening was very eventful as a warm front pushed moisture into our area with very cool surface temps. Many areas around Western Washington saw between 1-4" of snow before warmer air began to invade and turn precipitation to rain. Areas along Hood Canal received 3-6" of wet snow, lingering a little longer with easterly winds created enhanced snowfall along the Olympics.

Well that front will continue to bring steadier rain today and very warm temperatures. Highs will be near 50, for about the next 7 days as a series of systems brush by us. With the rapid increase in temps last night and this morning, an Avalanche Warning is up for the Olympics and Cascades as natural Avalanches are expected once the change over from easterly to westerly winds begin and that warm air invades the mountains.

Another problem will be clogged storm drains as the snow begins to melt around major Metropolitan areas. A FlOOD ADVISORY is in effect for most of Central Puget sound for that very reason.

Warm air will keep overnight temps tonight in the low 40s or upper 30s. Nothing near or below freezing like we have been dealing with lately.

Tomorrow through Monday we will see a line of storms track one after another in the Northwest. So expect steady to heavy rains for the next couple of days will brief breaks in precip.

Aaron

Snow Update

Just a few days ago we were talking about a major snowstorm possible. Now? If you live in the Seattle-Metro area you may be lucky to get an inch as this storm has moved its track much more north and will be bringing rain for most of the area by Wednesday morning. But through this evening, anywhere from 7pm to early morning Wednesday, you could see some snow. Specifically were looking at around 3-6" along the Hood Canal and Bellingham areas, and just a trace-2" for Olympia to Everett locales. By Wednesday morning all precipitation will be in the form of rain, except up North where cooler air from the Frasier River will supplement continued snowfall.

1-2 feet of snow will fall in the mountains before the snow level begins to rise up and over 4000ft. This could be very detrimental for our snow pack as heavy rain will contribute to melting the snow pack.

A very wet and warm series of systems appear to be moving into our area over the next 7 days. Not much break in the rain as UW's morning models pegged 5 warm fronts moving in the week.

Our very dry and cool stretch for the past few weeks will certainly be made up by the time these storm tracks move through. Stay tuned for more updates.

-Aaron