Tropical Storm Don

The first major storm threatening the US coast is upon us as Tropical Storm Don is nearing the Texas Southeast coastline. In about 36 hours it will make landfall as most likely a tropical storm, strengthening just slightly from its current state. Continued vertical shear and interaction with some dry air will prevent the storm from intensifying much further. Here is the projected path of the storm

You can see there are tropical storm warnings up for the Texas coastline and also a tropical storm WATCH for the extreme southern tip of the TX coast.

Wind speeds right now of tropical storm force encompass a small circular area in the gulf and projected wind speeds for the storm are as follows

Probability of tropical storm force winds are shown here with the light brown indicating 60 to 70 percent and the darker brown (hitting the coastline) 50-60%.

With a strong ridge set up over the middle of the country, and models projecting it to be stationary for the next 36-48 hours, I would expect the storm to follow this Northwesterly path up until landfall and just a little afterward before shifting Northward and Northeast a few days from now.

With the big drought occuring right now in Texas, this rain will be welcomed by many. I will post updates on Twitter as needed. @huskyAaron

Unusual...Year?

Well after a very cool Spring in the Northwest, it appears the pattern that brought the low pressure right over the Pac NW has not dissapated. The average July temperature in Seattle is 75.3 and it has been a full degree below normal through the first half of the month (74.1).

So what is this "pattern" you ask?? Well in meteorology an often used term for cooler and wetter weather is what we call a trough. The atmospheric flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere roughly follows a wavelike pattern with a bulge upward (to the North) being a ridge and a bulge downward (to the South) being a trough. The trough is associated with low pressure and the ridge is associated with high pressure. As many of you know, High pressure brings us the warm and sunny weather. The low pressure brings us showers and clouds. Here is an example of a forecast map with the ridge and trough.

Clicking on the image you can see the ridge over the central pacific and the trough over the west coast. Well this pattern has not changed much over the past few months and it looks like it won't change for the next week either.

It's unfortunate because this is the driest time of the year for the Northwest (and warmest).

The climate prediction center produces forecasts out to 14 days and here is what they have predicted

This is for the 6-10 day

 And here is the 8-14 day stretch. As you can see, the west coast remains cooler than normal and the central/eastern parts of the country remain well above normal temperatures.


Now I want to take some time and talk about Oxnard, CA weather. I have learned a few things about the local weather here that make me very excited about the next couple of weeks. No, there won't be any major weather occurences, in fact, it is just the opposite. It is going to get nicer :)

Around this time of year the weather is quite temperate. Mornings start off with a marine push that moves a large layer of clouds overheard. By about midday the clouds start to burn off and a cool seabreeze starts that helps temperatures to not exceed the low 70s. With a higher humidity it feels like 80, very pleasant for myself.

In a few weeks the monsoon season for Arizona begins to break down and higher pressure moves in to the four corners area of the US and this brings warm, desert air over the coastal mountains, preventing that morning marine push. What that means?? Clear and sunny all day long. And that continues for weeks into September and October when the Santa Ana winds pick up.

I'll have another post next week as I begin my volunteer internship at the National Weather Service!!

Summer Update

Sorry about the lack of posts lately, since school is out I've been quite busy getting ready to go to California and start volunteering at the National Weather Service. So here is a quick synopsis of what is to come:

After the past couple of beautiful days with highs in the 80s, we will have a pattern chance for the next couple of days. A low pressure system to drag Southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska tonight into Friday. This will mean onshore flow returns tonight bringing marine air and moisture. Tomorrow morning most will wake up to low clouds and cooler temperatures. A few areas of drizzle cannot be ruled out either.

Onshore flow remains through tomorrow so only a few areas in the afternoon will burn through the clouds. Expect partly cloudy skies and a chance of showers Thursday afternoon. Highs will be in the low 70s.

Similar for Friday with partly sunny skies and a chance of showers, although the shower chance will be less. A little cooler than Thursday as the low passes over the Northwest so highs will only be in the upper 60s.

A return to drier conditions for the weekend but the onshore flow continues so I would expect morning clouds burning off to partly sunny skies in the afternoon.

Make it a great week!