12-31 Discussion

Sorry about the delay in the next post, got busy with having fun on Winter Break :)

Updated Friday 4:30 p.m.

Do you remember back to December 31^st, 2009? Well let me refresh your memory. Our high for the day was 49 degrees (sounds like a heat wave right now), we received just over a quarter of an inch of rain, and we were entering into, what we didn’t know then, would be the warmest January ever in Seattle (average 47 degrees).

Well that is a stark contrast to today and 2011 will get off to a much different start than 2010.

Today was beautiful and crisp with high temperatures only reaching the mid 30s throughout most of western Washington. A ridge of high pressure over the northwest, contributing to cloudless sky and beautiful sunshine, will also be the culprit to plummeting temperatures overnight, very similar to last night. Around Seattle and locales near the Puget Sound, overnight lows will be in the low to mid 20s. In Olympia, Bellingham, the foothills, and any outlying areas, overnight lows will fall into the teens. Anyone going out to see some fireworks shows will want to bundle up but the clear skies will make for some fantastic viewing.

Saturday, and the New Year, will start off with some icy roads as fog may develop around the sound, so watch out for black ice on the roadways. Tomorrow will warm up just a tad, maybe close to the 40 degree mark, but still remarkably cooler than normal for this time of year. Clear skies once again will make for a beautiful day, so go outside and take some pictures and enjoy the nice crisp New Year.

The passes will remain clear too but quite chilly. Afternoon pass temps will be in the low to mid 20s.

Eastern Washington definitely wins the cold temperature category Saturday with afternoon highs right around the 20 degree mark, maybe a little warmer towards Walla Walla and the Tri-Cities, into the mid 20s.

Sunday looks almost identical to Saturday, with highs inching a little higher, right around 40 degrees, and clear skies all around.

Monday and Tuesday will mark a little transition to warmer temperatures with daytime highs into the low to mid 40s and overnight lows near 32 degrees.

A change over to wetter weather could come by Wednesday but forecast models have been wavering a little on the timing. Overall, expect a wetter pattern setting up by mid next week.

Stay warm and Happy New Years!

Aaron Hill

KOMO Weather Intern

12-21 Weather Discussion

Updated Tuesday 5:03 p.m.

A quick look back at autumn will bring a nice reminder of the whacky weather we have had around Western Washington. We have seen some record rainfall (more than 1 occasion), many warmer than normal days (18 just in December), a wind storm or two, and don’t forget a snowstorm before Thanksgiving that created havoc all over Seattle.

So how will this wacky weather end? Quite peacefully, actually, as we have some partly cloudy skies out tonight and very little moisture around. We will see the clouds increase overnight which will prevent the temperatures from getting near freezing but we’ll still get down into the higher 30s for most areas. We may see a few spotty showers here or there.

A system moving North off the Oregon coast will send a few showers or some light rain towards us Wednesday morning. The system stalls a little off the coast, preventing it from moving inland and this will make it difficult for the coast to get out of the rain but for most areas around Western Washington, Wednesday afternoon should be fairly dry. Highs will be top out around the mid 40s.

The mountains will see a few snow showers Wednesday morning but only accumulating to 2-5”. By the end of the week they will begin to see some more snow and even MORE it appears for next week, but that’s still a little early to tell. Snow level tomorrow will be around 2000ft.

Eastern Washington will have mostly cloudy skies Wednesday morning turning to snow showers by the afternoon, mainly west of Moses Lake. High temps in the low 30s.

That system that stalled off the coast will make its way inland by Thursday, bringing some more steady rain for our area. Foothill locations will probably see some gusty winds as well, but not as bad as we had a few days ago. Winds will likely be around 20-30mph with gusts near 40.

The front will pass through Thursday and showers will linger through Friday as another cold front approaches our area for Saturday. Highs will climb a little into the upper 40s ahead of the front. Last minute holiday shoppers will not be battling any torrential downpours Christmas Eve.

For Christmas day, we will have a good ole fashioned Northwest Christmas. Around here it is commonly known as a “Green” Christmas, meaning cloudy and wet and sure enough, that’s what’s in store. We have another cold front that will push through bringing steady rains for most of Western Washington. Temperatures will be mild, in the mid to upper 40s.

Longer range models keep us in the rainy trend with mostly cloudy and showers Sunday, rain and gusty winds Monday, and some scattered showers Tuesday. It’s looking like most of next week shall be wet and cooler, possibly bringing some heavy snow to the mountains.

But for us, this isn’t very whacky weather; it’s typical for a northwest winter.

Aaron Hill

KOMO4 Weather Intern

Stats for 2010

The National Weather Service put out a bulletin today detailing this year (2010) in review. Here are some records broken at sea-tac this year for temperatures and rainfall

P.S. we broke some snowfall records also, just not posted here. Happened right before thanksgiving

SEA-TAC AIRPORT (OBSERVATIONS TAKEN SINCE 1945)

HIGH TEMP          LOW TEMP          PRECIPITATION

01/13  56(T)            03/09  28(T)                03/25  0.62
03/24  68                 07/13  50(T)              03/29  0.92
07/07  90                 11/24  14                  04/21  0.87
07/08  95                                                 09/07  0.26
07/09  93                                                 09/17  1.49
08/14  95                                                 09/18  0.78
08/15  96                                                 11/01  1.56
11/03  74                                                 12/12  2.19

12-17

I have good news and bad news. Good news is that there is snow in the forecast (although for some, this may be considered very bad news). Bad news? Not everyone will see it. In fact, about 98% of Western Washington will not see it.

For tonight, it will stay mostly clear, allowing temperatures to fall into the low 30s. A low pressure system spinning off to our west will be sending a system through our neighborhood overnight and into the morning hours Saturday. That low off in the Pacific will pull air from the high pressure in eastern Washington, through the mountain passes and create some wind issues for the foothill communities. A HIGH WIND WARNING is up for the western slopes of the Cascades, Friday night thru noon Saturday. Winds 20-40mph and gusts up to 65+ will be impacting places like Enumclaw, North Bend, Gold Bar, and Cumberland, but this system could also affect lowland areas like Issaquah, Black Diamond, Eatonville, and Sultan if wind is carried a little further. The warning also encompasses the west entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, including Neah Bay. These winds will have the potential to knock down some significant trees, especially since the ground is still saturated from last weekends’ rain. For the Puget Sound areas, it may get a little breezy but not terrible with gusts in the 15-25mph range.

As for moisture, rain will move in by early morning. With low snow levels (500-1000ft) and these east winds, a process called “evaporative cooling” may induce some snow showers along the Hood Canal and western parts of the Kitsap Peninsula. 1-3” of wet snow may accumulate in these areas. A rain/snow mix may also show up in the higher hilltops North and East of Seattle but for everyone else, Saturday will just be filled with rain and showers in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 30s and low 40s.

The mountain passes will be very gusty as the winds whip through on their way down to the lowlands. No major accumulation are expected but around 2-5” of snow could fall. Mid 20s will be the high temperatures for Snoqualmie and Stevens passes.

Eastern Washington will see a few snow flurries and they will increase throughout the day Saturday. Highs will be in the 20s and low 30s.

Showers will be around Saturday afternoon through Sunday for Western Washington as unstable air moves in behind the incoming system. Sunday will also be cool with temperatures only in the low 40s.

Next week leading up to Christmas is looking showery but not extremely wet. The jet-stream will be aimed more to our south into Northern California which will leave the brunt of the storms for them to deal with. That leaves us with unstable air and showers with snow levels around 1000-2000 feet.

Ok, so I lied. I may have some more bad news. For those of you who may have been wishing for a white Christmas, you may need to take a trip to Leavenworth or a nice ski resort because models don’t suggest any white stuff for the near future. Right now, it looks like we will have our ole fashioned Northwest green Christmas, which consists of some gray skies and showers.

Aaron Hill

KOMO4 Weather Intern

12-15 Discussion

It’s the holiday season and many families will have loved ones flying into town from all areas of the country for the next few weeks. The rain will not escape this holiday season without seeing some family either as the sun will make an appearance at the end of this work week.

For tonight, the sun will be stuck on his slow flight as showers will stick around. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 30s with some outlying areas, along the Hood Canal and up in Bellingham, seeing close to freezing temperatures.

Thursday begins with scattered showers that move out by the afternoon and we’ll be left with some partly cloudy skies and sun-breaks at times. The Sun will have landed at the airport by now. Highs will top out in the low to mid 40s, about normal for this time of year.

For Friday, the sun will have arrived to the holiday party and we will see partly sunny skies again. Highs will climb to the mid 40s. Gusty winds will begin along the foothills Friday and this could be the real story to think about coming up on the weekend. A strong low out in the pacific will continue to spin off our coast creating a strong pressure gradient between Eastern and Western Washington. Air tends to flow from higher pressure to lower so with that low spinning off the coast, we will get some strong winds coming through the Cascades beginning Friday afternoon into Saturday. Tough to say at this moment but model runs now point at 20-30mph winds with gusts to 30-45mph. We will be keeping an eye out for the wind potential.

Another disturbance will come through Friday night, meaning the sun will have to take an early flight home as the rain will return for the weekend. A shower chance remains Saturday through Sunday.

Happy Holidays!

Aaron Hill

KOMO Weather Intern

12-13 Discussion

We have now entered the “calm after the storm” with this weekend behind us. The pineapple express that came through Saturday and Sunday was a real soaker and it broke a few records throughout the area. Seattle set records on both Saturday and Sunday for rainfall. Here are some other cities that broke records on Sunday:

Olympia – 1.80”

Bellingham – 1.61”

Port Angeles – 1.18”

Renton – 1.92”

Shelton – 3.10”

Seattle – 2.19”

A few rivers are still under FLOOD WARNINGS including the Nooksack and Skagit in the north, Snoqualmie and Snohomish in the central Washington area, the Green River upstream from Auburn, the Chehalis near Grand Mound, and the Skokomish. All these rivers have crested upstream and most should fall below flood stage tonight. The Skokomish in particular will not reach below flood stage for a few days as it is typically very slow to recede.

The worst is behind us but tonight another cold front will move through. Rain will begin tonight but it will not be threatening to any of our flood issues. Cooler air will be moving in which will lower snow levels to 2500 feet tonight so rain that falls in the mountains will be in the form of snow, not adding to any of our river flooding. Temps will be in the low 40s tonight.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for the Cascades for several inches of snow that could fall tonight through tomorrow afternoon. We could see around 6” up at Snoqualmie pass and around 10” at Mt. Baker and the higher elevation passes. It is getting back to normal around here.

A SE wind will also pick up tonight. Central Puget Sound may see 20-30mph gusts with some higher gusts up North. This is only worrisome because of the very saturated ground and trees will not be as stable. This is something to keep an eye on.  

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and we’ll see the rain turn to showers by the time the morning commute comes around. Highs will be in the mid 40s and showers will be around for much of the day. We’ll stay breezy as well with 15-25mph gusts.

There is a chance for some showers Wednesday and Thursday but also a few sunbreaks. Highs will drop down to the low 40s, normal for this time of year.

Friday is looking like our one dry day but also a bit cooler. Highs will hover around 40. The weekend doesn’t look too bad now but can’t rule out a shower or two.

Stay dry!

Aaron Hill

KOMO Weather Intern

Weather Forecast 12/8

We have had a little bit of everything today. This mornings commute started off with a nice wake-up call for many of you as a strong squall moved through Western Washington bringing heavy rain, hail, lighting, and thunder. That lasted for about 2 hours and what were we left with? Partly Sunny day. Crazy.

As for the rest of tonight, rain will continue to dominate over most of western Washington as another round of rain is making landfall. It will pick up in intensity tonight and then taper to just showers by midday tomorrow. Tomorrow’s highs will be in the upper 40s.

Thursday night into Friday will feature another disturbance passing through to give us some more rain which will taper off Friday afternoon. We’ll squeak by dry Friday evening into Saturday morning. Highs will be in the mid 40s both days.

The real soaker (as if today wasn’t enough) will be this weekend. A very wet pattern is shaping up that is typical of Spring time, a pattern called a “pineapple express” where lots of moisture is driven our way for a prolonged period of time, usually associated with warmer temperatures. It looks like this is shaping up for the weekend but fine details of where the bulk of the moisture will go have to be left out because models do not have a great consensus for now. This needs to be monitored because many of our local area rivers could reach flood stage with a prolonged period of rain. For now I would say that you should expect some pretty heavy rains for both Sunday and Monday. That could also carry into Tuesday but we’ll know for sure in the next couple of days when more higher resolution models can be looked at.

12-6 Monday Discussion

We still are leaning towards dry weather for Monday. A weak system off the coast of Oregon may send a few showers our way today and tomorrow afternoon but nothing significant. Highs today will range from the low 40s to low 50s depending on where you live. Enumclaw and the foothills have hit 50 already but Tacoma has just barely made it over freezing this morning.

This evening we'll keep things relative cloudy with lows in the high 30s.

Tomorrow will feature a greater rain chance as another system lingers offshore. Weak onshore push will keep the system out to sea, or at least stalled on the coast until a stronger push comes in Tuesday night. Highs in the upper 40s. Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning is our greatest chance for rainfall. No extreme amounts expected. Snowfall in the Olympics and Cascades is certain.

The rest of Wednesday and Thursday we will see showers around the area as the front moves through (Tuesday night) and some unstable air is left over in the area. Highs will remain a little warmer than we have been seeing, in the mid to high 40s.

Friday and Saturday look relatively dry for now but no real sun is expected to peak out for our enjoyment. Highs remain in the mid 40s.

Sunday and Monday look wet right now, VERY wet. The National Weather Service has been hinting the past few days that this could be a classic flooding pattern so those couple of days will have to be monitored but for now we'll say rain probable for Sun and Mon.

First Official Forecast

My first official online forecast for KOMO4 as an intern came on Friday. This was it

Cougars and Huskies will be able to agree on one thing this weekend: The weather will be a nice change.

Tonight will begin a nice transition out of our normal rainy weather into a small stretch of dry and cooler weather for the weekend. As the clouds roll out tonight we will see temperatures dip down to freezing or below for some of the outlying areas. The cooling will allow fog and frost to form by early tomorrow morning.

The fog won’t last long and will clear out by late morning. We’ll be left with a very dry and pleasant day. Highs will top out in the low 40s. If you have any outdoor activities to finish up then this might be the weekend to do it as longer range forecasts hint at a wetter week ahead. More on that in a little bit.

The important story for tomorrow is that we expect the foothills and mountain passes to see some gusty winds tomorrow as air will be rushing through the mountain gaps. Places like North Bend and Enumclaw could see winds from 30-45mph Saturday through Sunday. For those you headed over to Pullman for the apple cup (Go Huskies J ) and you have a larger load, these winds will push your trailers around so be careful driving over.

Apple Cup Forecast: Highs for Pullman on Saturday will only be in the 20s. Mainly dry for kick-off with a chance for a snow shower during the evening. 

Sunday will follow a similar pattern as Saturday with mainly dry conditions and highs in the low 40s. More clouds roll in Sunday and a shower may pop up by the late afternoon around Western Washington.  

Monday will be mainly dry as well but still holds a lingering shower chance. Highs will be around the mid 40s.

Tuesday begins a more normal fall pattern with models hinting at a few rounds of rain headed our way by mid-week.

Go Dawgs!

Aaron Hill

KOMO Weather Intern

Friday Weather

This morning should start off with some scattered showers around, not much instability in the air so it will be light showers if you see any. Things clear out by later today and temps should get into the mid 40's for most of you.

Things then get a bit pleasant for this time of the year. November is typically the stormiest month the year and in December, average rainfall falls with extreme rainfall amounts being significantly less. However, the start of this December will feature another aspect of our weather that so many miss this time of year. SUN! More importantly dry weather though. Saturday and Sunday feature pretty dry and cool days, with sun around, maybe not in full force though. We will still see some higher clouds around so it won't be completely clear. Still, if you have some last minute yard stuff to do, or don't like picking up a tree in bad weather, you might consider doing it this weekend.

Long Range forecast models bring in a few weather systems next week that might warrant some flooding attention as it appears for now that temps get a bit mild as well. This will be watched but know after monday, we transition into a much wetter pattern.

TGIF!

Wednesday 12/1

Well we start off this month with a bit of a break from the weird weather and get a rather boring forecast for the rest of the week and the weekend. We clear out partially tonight so lows will dip down to the low 30s. Tomorrow will feature dryness with temps just in the low 40s but it will remain mostly cloudy, and more clouds develop later in the day.

By tomorrow night a chance of showers returns and it goes into Friday morning. Very slight chance for showers though.

The weekend offers a good dry spell so far. Friday looks mostly dry and we keep that into Saturday and Sunday, possibly even Monday. Temps will be cooler though, maybe not reaching 40 degrees Sat. and Sunday.

Enjoy the rest of the week!

Start of the Work Week

11-29

As we close the book on November, the story goes a lot like how we began the month. Rainy. As a low pressure system spins well off our coast and to the north, it is sending a good dose of rain our way this evening and into tomorrow morning.

The warm air in front of the system and increasing clouds overnight will keep temperatures from dropping any farther than the mid-high 30s. Tomorrow will be mild as the warm air moves through to the cold air behind the front. Expect temperatures anywhere from mid-high 40s.

What this also means is LOTS of snow for the Cascade Mountains. A WINTER STORM WARNING is up for the Olympics and Cascades from Monday night to Tuesday at 1PM. The warning calls for 1-2 feet of snow for most elevations. Pass levels may see some mixed freezing rain as freezing levels will fluctuate from 2000-4000 feet from morning to afternoon, falling back down by evening to all snow.

The other part of this story is the wind. A WIND ADVISORY is up from Admiralty Inlet up to the Canadian border. Expect winds 25-35 mph all the way into British Columbia with gusts near 50. The Southern Coast also has a HIGH WIND WARNING up with winds sustained 30-40mph and gusts up to 65.

The book on November is closing fast, and here is a nice summary: Started with record rain on the 1st; 2 days later record heat; 3 weeks later record low temperatures; Finishing it off with a good ole fashioned rainy day. Nothing is better than a La Nina winter in the Northwest.

P.S. Winter starts on December 21^st ;)

Look Ahead: In general the rest of the week looks a tad cyclical as we will have periods of showers mixed with sun-breaks up until the weekend. I have a feeling sun-breaks may dominate toward the end of the week. Weekend doesn’t look half bad right now

A Look Ahead

The weather around this weekend hasn't been too terribly bad. We have had some off and on showers with occasional sunbreaks all around the area. Tomorrow we will begin the process of ushering in a new weather system Monday night into Tuesday. As the front moves through expect some gusty winds throughout the sound, the highest up in the usual places like the San Juans, the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and the coast. Locally gusts into the 30mph range.

The thing to talk about with this system is the rain and the SNOW that it will bring to the mountains. A Winter Storm Watch is up for the mountains where 1-2 feet of snow is expected to fall between Monday afternoon and Tuesday evening. This is for all of the mountain passes so careful driving over the passes for Tuesday. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday offer chances for showers with normals temps around the low-mid 40s. Very standard for November and December weather. :)

11-26 Discussion

Today is the big shopping day and thankfully, that snow we got at the beginning part of the week started melting off yesterday, otherwise there would have been some major problems with the travelers this morning. I myself joined the multitude of crowds trying to find those deals and we were greeted with a good dose of steady rain this morning as a strong cold front moved through the area. That about finished the steady rains for the weekend but we will see occasional showers through Sunday with unstable air in place. Highs will be normal in the mid 40's though so no snow expected for us :) EXCEPT in the mountains where there is still a Winter Storm Warning for the Olympics and Cascades, where over a foot of snow could fall by tonight from yesterday. Occasional snow showers will continue for the mountains through the weekend as well.

Aside, those of you in Spokane also have a Winter Storm Warning in affect. That area will be hit hard with snow over the weekend as temperatures remain below freezing.

Look Ahead:
I can happily say that things look normal for the Northwest for the next 7 days. We will stay in low-mid 40's for most of the week with rain interspersed throughout. We may get windy on Tuesday-Wednesday but it's nothing to be alarmed about. Long range climate predictions keep us at normal temperatures for the next 14 days, and at or below normal for precipiation. :) Enjoy the holiday weekend!

11-23 Discussion

Well, yesterday was one whacky weather day. To apologize to all of you who may have read my weather report (really i only think 2 or 3 did ;) ) but I was pretty far off with my weather report for yesterday. I may have relied just a little too much on model forecasts. But honestly, i have no prior experience forecasting snow to rely on anything else. The National Weather service called for widespread snow, 1-3 inches for western washington. They went more with gut feeling for yesterday understand the models but also understanding what it takes to get snow around here and if any little thing changed with the storm things could get very hairy for most of Washington. And it did. Enough of that, just have to give credit to the people who got it "right" for the most part yesterday. I don't think anyone expected the impact of the storm though.

To explain a little bit more about yesterday. There were a couple of upper level disturbances, what meteorologists call short waves that came down from BC yesterday that caused out morning and evening snow storms. The first was not expected to be as strong as it was and it surprised many by dumping the snow that it did. Also, it came right during the morning commute which couldn't have been worse timing. These "short waves" move very quickly so this storm was out of Western Washington by morning and then, what the NWS was forecasting for, the second storm was aimed to move in by evening. NWS bumped up their forecast to 2-6" after the first storm, always thinking the second would be worse.

However, the path that this storm took, and the strength it intensified too, was not forecasted one bit. It took a path about 100 miles east of model forecasts which was off the WA coast. It came right on top of Western WA and intensified as it came down. At one point to about 999mb (central pressure reading). Not only did it strengthen, IT WAS SLOW!! We got slammed for hours yesterday, not that I need to really tell anyone, with snow. Especially along the Northern edge of the Olympic Peninsula where some areas were measuring snow totals in feet this morning. Incredible.

We also had an interesting weather development yesterday as winds coming from the Frasier Valley in BC (up near Bellingham) came down into the puget sound and warm moist air was coming up from the south, brought up by the low pressure. This creates an unorthodox convergence zone for washington, not a typical one caused by Olympics. It created some "thundersnow" in the Tacoma area where convection of the warm and cold air occured. It is an interesting phenomenom where there is a thundercloud but it's so cold it snows. I've never seen or heard one myself, but I have heard from others it is louder and brighter with snow. Having to do with the snow reflecting the light better and colder air is more dense so it carries sound better. That is something for someone else to lecture on though :).

Now that we are done with that storm, and yes IT IS DONE, we are left with this icy mess. And it won't go away for a couple days. I was reading a weather discussion this morning that said we have had 36 straight hours under freezing, 32 degrees. Well, we have 2 more days of that. Today's high temp is 28 degrees. Yes, 28. Tomorrow you ask? 30. We do start to warm up by Thursday where we could see a rain/snow mix before the warmer air takes over and we start to see just rain. We stay in the low to mid 40 range for the holiday weekend. THE BIG STORY HERE IS THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS! Snow levels will be down to 1000-2000 feet which means snow in all major passes. If you have to get over, bring chains and patience. (Snowboarders and Skiers will be in heaven if you choose to go up to the resorts).

We see a strong weather pattern coming in Friday to Saturday which could bring that major snow to the passes and lots of rain to the lowlands. That is your extra long weather summary. I was working long last night so I got a lot of info about the weather to share with you all (3 people? :) ).

Cool Stats

• On Nov. 3rd, we hit a record tieing 74 degree's for November. On the 22nd, 32 was our high. And forecasted 28 for the 23rd. Thats a 42-46 degree difference. Wow. What a change.
• Set record for snowfall yesterday with 2.7" inches at Sea-Tac.
• Most amount of snow for Sea-Tac before Thanksgiving in last 25 years. 1985 was the last time this has happened.
• Peak Wind gusts
• 72 on Lummi Island
• 65 Belling ham
• 60 Port Townsend

11-21 Discussion

It's Sunday night. I've seen some flurries today around, getting heavy at times but no accumulations here in Bothell. There is a chance for some lingering snow showers through tonight with some local accumulations. There is a Winter Weather Advisory up for all of Western Washington through Monday night and the national Weather Service says any location could accumulate from 1 to 3 inches of snow. Now after looking at models I would have to say the NWS may just be covering it's basis and the majority of snowfall will come south of Olympia. Some models suggest as north Seattle but all suggest South of Olympia. For Monday, it looks like some more showers could be around and the temps will not get past freezing. Up in Bellingham expect some very chilly temps and windy conditions, with some areas having overnight lows into the SINGLE DIGITS. Wowzers

As for Tuesday, VERY COLD for all of the area with temps maybe not creeping past the upper 20s. Bundle up and stay warm. Will be dry throughout Washington so no snow expected

Wednesday some more moisture may enter the area so for now, i would say spotty snow showers may be expected. Still very cold temperatures so no matter what moisture it is, it will be as snow.

After Wednesday, things start to warm up slowly and we get into a warmer pattern Thursday onward. But first, we must get through this cold snap. Stay tuned for any changed!

Uncertain Forecasts

For the past few days, forecasters on TV and for the National Weather Service have been hinting on the possibility of snow this weekend. Well, we had our first big chance last night with Bellingham getting a nice dusting of the white stuff last night as some strong rain swells charged into the San Juans and Whatcom county. Today things will be quite different. We should remain relatively dry for Saturday and it continues to get colder. Temps won't get past 40 for most. A few showers might pop up but there is not much moisture around us. Sunday will start off cold as well, with overnight lows dropping to freezing.

Some discrepencies have arrived about what will happen Sunday night into Monday. A professor at the University of Washington has a great blog that is detailing this http://cliffmass.blogspot.com so I will paraphrase.
Two models, the GFS and NAM, have indicated two different scenarios. The GFS keeps us relatively dry overnight but the NAM indicates more moisture, much more moisture with a low dropping down from BC. This would be a much better scenario for snow but the two models need to be in agreement for us to say if it will snow or not...right now it would be just a guess. When some more model forecasts come out, they do them 4 times a day, we can better assess the situation.

Nonetheless, we still continue to get cold and Tuesday looks like we may have a very hard freeze overnight. Highs Tuesday look to be only at freezing temperatures which means overnight lows will plummet into low 20s and teens.

Enjoy the brisk November weather! La Nina has arrived :)

11-17 Weather Discussion

I may have had to write a book if I wanted to talk all about this weekend's potential for snow...but I'm not feeling like boring you guys half to death will all the mumbo jumbo I could go into. So I'll keep it nice and simple and put down a timeline for y'all!

Wednesday Night: Showers will remain around but taper off late. Expect temps to be right around 40 and maybe a little bit lower in the outlying regions.

Thursday: Showers will pick up again by afternoon and you probably won't see much of any sun tomorrow as the clouds just hover over us. High's won't be getting out of the mid 40's as that stretch of colder weather begins tomorrow. The cold air out of Canada will begin crawling its way down into Whatcom county and that is where we could see some potential flurries for thursday if there is moisture around.

Friday: Cold air will keep filtering in and highs will be in the low 40s or high 30s. We may see some light snow among hilltops during the evening if we get a strong enough snow shower that drops the snow level down. However, we begin a bit of a dry phase here where temperatures will be cold enough for snow but not much rain around

Saturday: Temps start dropping a little more with highs in the 30s.

Sunday: We have some colder temperatures around the sound and by sunday night we may be seeing some snow flurries around the puget sound area. No major accumulations are expected but this is the best chance for lowland snow this weekend.

Want Snow???

Are you really excited about the possibility for snow this weekend?? I have some bad news...and you may not want to read what I have to say. It's doubtful. Now, we are still a few days away so things can change (as they have over the past few days where some people had friday pegged as a day for snow). Models have kinda halted on the really cold air coming in for the Thursday and Friday timeframe. We are headed into a much colder pattern, that is for sure, but it may not come as quickly as we need in order to see some lowland snow. Let's talk about what's going to happen before then.

Tuesday we will be in between the system that came by last night, which brought some intense winds from the south in a very quick fashion, surprising not only TV forecasters but the National Weather Service who didn't put up warnings until about 8pm, and the system coming in Wednesday morning. There is a central low that will be sitting off the BC coast and will bring with it some steady and heavy rain at times, dropping snow levels in the mountains to about 2000 feet. A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for the mountains for Wednesday, with all passes expecting at least 8 inches, some of the higher ones probably getting more than a foot. Be careful going over the passes this week.

Showers will be possible for Thursday and Friday as the Low continues to sag down to the south, very slowly, and will spin the moisture continuously at us. This low is carrying a good amount of cold air out of the arctic, so once it passes, cold air will begin to invade the Northwest. Temperatures will significantly drop by Sunday with potential daytime highs only in the high 30's. Monday and Tuesday offer even colder air and it is a little too early to tell where the moisture will be, but if it is around, my guess right now is we would see snow around the lowlands.

Stay tuned for more updates as they become available. :)

Wacky Wind

Something very new to me happened this afternoon. While a cold front was passing through the region a "lee-wave low" was created east of the Olympics, mainly over Seattle and northern areas. What this did was create a pressure gradient of nearly 3 or 4 milibars difference just 15 miles apart, a very strong gradient in this kind of vicinity. This created very gusty winds coming up from the south, evidenced by the waves crashing over the 520 bridge early this afternoon. Gusts reached 52 at Alki and 46 in Magnolia and at UW. While Everett only reached a gust of 20mph? Huh. Very strange to have such localized wind. Had reports of damage in Mercer Island as well as in the Phinney Neighborhood of Seattle. Here is a good article detailing the days weather details

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blog/108294304.html

11-15 Discussion

“I heard from a friend of mine that it’s going to snow soon! I’m so excited!”

“Did you hear the big news? It’s going to snow next week!!”

Yes, you and I, and about half the state, have heard the buzz going around this past weekend that there is a chance for some snow later this week. I’ll get to that bit of the news, but first, let’s tackle the weather for the next couple of days.

Monday night we will have some lingering showers with temps in the low 40s and breezy around the sound, winds anywhere from 20 to 30mph. For Tuesday, showers should taper off by mid morning and we will remain mostly cloudy and dry for the remainder of the day. We should also see the winds begin to die down by morning hours.

Wednesday brings another rain maker for the lowlands, and the possibility of some HEAVY snow for the mountains. It will get breezy again around the northwest. Thursday has the potential for some lingering showers passing through the area and overcast skies.

And now the cold scenario everyone is dying to hear about. Models have indicated that the time frame of Friday to Monday will be encompassed with some cold air filtering in from Canada. AT THIS POINT, this does not look like a major snow event for the lowlands. Snow levels will be dropping to the 500-1000ft level. Some localized areas may see some flurries, especially up in the north like Whatcom County. The mountains will certainly see some snow if there is moisture falling.

To figure out specific details, 72 hours is a good mark for forecasters to say where and when we might see snow. So stay tuned!

Now go tell your friends and family who have all been spreading those rumors about the worst snow storm in years. This will be a marginal event at best.