Next Tropical Storm?

UPDATED AUGUST 4th 10:00 AM PST

TS Emily is now located just South of the Dominican Republic moving WNW at 5mph, quite slow. The updated projected path still takes it just East of Florida but with now direct impact on the state. Still, rain and wind will most likely affect the peninsula and the Keys with Tropical Storm force.



UPDATED AUGUST 3rd 2:00PM PST

I have just looked at some of the more recent forecasts and it looks like Florida will be glanced by the storm. It is now officially Tropical Storm Emily and is located just Southwest of Puerto Rico. A recent radar image from Puerto Rico shows just part of the storm

Heavy rain, wind, and possible flooding will accompany the storm as it is crossing over the Caribbean islands. It's current forecasted track will take it just east of Florida but will still likely impact the state with rain and wind.

It appears likely that it will not intensify into a Hurricane by morning Saturday, where it is just east of the Florida coast. Will update on any more notices

--------------------------------------------------------------------



Current satellite images show a tropical "wave" in the western Atlantic near the Northern Windward Islands and Leeward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center has given it a 90% chance for tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. This could mean very short notice for Tropical Storm warnings in the Caribbean group of islands. GFS model runs done last night bring the low pressure system just East of Florida by August 6th, 6 days out

 But another model run, the ECMWF (dont worry about what the letters mean) showed almost no development by day 6 and the storm dissapating. There is plenty of uncertainty with the storm as the model run done around midnight PST last night (06Z) showed this

With the low WELL off the coast and not a threat to the US coastline.

At the moment, with no surface circulation, the tropical wave is not a depression but is likely to form into one with favorable atmospheric conditions over the next 48 hours. Air Force Hurricane Hunters will monitor the progression of the storm for the next several days.

Updates to Follow