Tropical Cyclones!

In the wake of Hurricane Irene, we have two new developments in the tropics. The National Hurricane Center has indicated an area of interest just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, noted here with the orange hashing

 They indicate it has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone but both the European model and GFS model that i have looked at indicate it's development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next couple of days.

The reason I would favor this idea is because of the gulf of mexico. Tropical cyclones feed off of warm ocean waters and the gulf is a prime location for storms for this reason. This tropical wave depicted above is projected to move into the gulf where i suspect it to feed into those waters and develop. It may not become a hurricane but it will certainly produce rain for the upcoming weekend so people making plans for Labor Day around the gulf need to heed to warnings or watches about this storm.


2ND STORM: Tropical Storm Katia is now in the Central Atlantic with 60knots sustained winds. Conditions are favorable for Katia to develop into a strong Hurricane but it's threat to land is still uncertain. Models at the moment have trended for Katia to continue towards the east coast but then turn Northwest and Northward over the next week or so.

The reasoning for Katia to turn like that is the upper level patters of the atmosphere. The mid latitude jetstream can have a profound impact on these tropical storms, almost "steering" them northward. It looks like a trough that moves over the east coast kind of pulls the storm northward and it joins into the mid latitudes. This would be good thing for the east coast after they got pounded with heavy rains and subsequent flooding from Irene.

I'll have another update on the tropics in a day or so, I hope

On a side note, I was shown an article by FOX news the other day about how the US doesn't need a National Weather Service anymore and that private forecasting companies and media like The Weather Channel are far better at forecasting than the NWS. This is preposterous on so many levels, most importantly, where do those private companies and the media get their information? Oh yeah, the NWS, who runs the models and talks about conditions hourly. I can't believe FOX even allowed this opinion article to be published. Pathetic

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/27/do-really-need-national-weather-service/

Have a great work week!