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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

11-23 Discussion

Well, yesterday was one whacky weather day. To apologize to all of you who may have read my weather report (really i only think 2 or 3 did ;) ) but I was pretty far off with my weather report for yesterday. I may have relied just a little too much on model forecasts. But honestly, i have no prior experience forecasting snow to rely on anything else. The National Weather service called for widespread snow, 1-3 inches for western washington. They went more with gut feeling for yesterday understand the models but also understanding what it takes to get snow around here and if any little thing changed with the storm things could get very hairy for most of Washington. And it did. Enough of that, just have to give credit to the people who got it "right" for the most part yesterday. I don't think anyone expected the impact of the storm though.

To explain a little bit more about yesterday. There were a couple of upper level disturbances, what meteorologists call short waves that came down from BC yesterday that caused out morning and evening snow storms. The first was not expected to be as strong as it was and it surprised many by dumping the snow that it did. Also, it came right during the morning commute which couldn't have been worse timing. These "short waves" move very quickly so this storm was out of Western Washington by morning and then, what the NWS was forecasting for, the second storm was aimed to move in by evening. NWS bumped up their forecast to 2-6" after the first storm, always thinking the second would be worse.

However, the path that this storm took, and the strength it intensified too, was not forecasted one bit. It took a path about 100 miles east of model forecasts which was off the WA coast. It came right on top of Western WA and intensified as it came down. At one point to about 999mb (central pressure reading). Not only did it strengthen, IT WAS SLOW!! We got slammed for hours yesterday, not that I need to really tell anyone, with snow. Especially along the Northern edge of the Olympic Peninsula where some areas were measuring snow totals in feet this morning. Incredible.

We also had an interesting weather development yesterday as winds coming from the Frasier Valley in BC (up near Bellingham) came down into the puget sound and warm moist air was coming up from the south, brought up by the low pressure. This creates an unorthodox convergence zone for washington, not a typical one caused by Olympics. It created some "thundersnow" in the Tacoma area where convection of the warm and cold air occured. It is an interesting phenomenom where there is a thundercloud but it's so cold it snows. I've never seen or heard one myself, but I have heard from others it is louder and brighter with snow. Having to do with the snow reflecting the light better and colder air is more dense so it carries sound better. That is something for someone else to lecture on though :).

Now that we are done with that storm, and yes IT IS DONE, we are left with this icy mess. And it won't go away for a couple days. I was reading a weather discussion this morning that said we have had 36 straight hours under freezing, 32 degrees. Well, we have 2 more days of that. Today's high temp is 28 degrees. Yes, 28. Tomorrow you ask? 30. We do start to warm up by Thursday where we could see a rain/snow mix before the warmer air takes over and we start to see just rain. We stay in the low to mid 40 range for the holiday weekend. THE BIG STORY HERE IS THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS! Snow levels will be down to 1000-2000 feet which means snow in all major passes. If you have to get over, bring chains and patience. (Snowboarders and Skiers will be in heaven if you choose to go up to the resorts).

We see a strong weather pattern coming in Friday to Saturday which could bring that major snow to the passes and lots of rain to the lowlands. That is your extra long weather summary. I was working long last night so I got a lot of info about the weather to share with you all (3 people? :) ).

Cool Stats

  • On Nov. 3rd, we hit a record tieing 74 degree's for November. On the 22nd, 32 was our high. And forecasted 28 for the 23rd. Thats a 42-46 degree difference. Wow. What a change.
  • Set record for snowfall yesterday with 2.7" inches at Sea-Tac.
  • Most amount of snow for Sea-Tac before Thanksgiving in last 25 years. 1985 was the last time this has happened.
  • Peak Wind gusts
  • 72 on Lummi Island
  • 65 Belling ham
  • 60 Port Townsend

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