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Saturday, November 20, 2010

Uncertain Forecasts

For the past few days, forecasters on TV and for the National Weather Service have been hinting on the possibility of snow this weekend. Well, we had our first big chance last night with Bellingham getting a nice dusting of the white stuff last night as some strong rain swells charged into the San Juans and Whatcom county. Today things will be quite different. We should remain relatively dry for Saturday and it continues to get colder. Temps won't get past 40 for most. A few showers might pop up but there is not much moisture around us. Sunday will start off cold as well, with overnight lows dropping to freezing.

Some discrepencies have arrived about what will happen Sunday night into Monday. A professor at the University of Washington has a great blog that is detailing this http://cliffmass.blogspot.com so I will paraphrase.
Two models, the GFS and NAM, have indicated two different scenarios. The GFS keeps us relatively dry overnight but the NAM indicates more moisture, much more moisture with a low dropping down from BC. This would be a much better scenario for snow but the two models need to be in agreement for us to say if it will snow or not...right now it would be just a guess. When some more model forecasts come out, they do them 4 times a day, we can better assess the situation.

Nonetheless, we still continue to get cold and Tuesday looks like we may have a very hard freeze overnight. Highs Tuesday look to be only at freezing temperatures which means overnight lows will plummet into low 20s and teens.

Enjoy the brisk November weather! La Nina has arrived :)

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