Start of the Work Week

11-29

As we close the book on November, the story goes a lot like how we began the month. Rainy. As a low pressure system spins well off our coast and to the north, it is sending a good dose of rain our way this evening and into tomorrow morning.

The warm air in front of the system and increasing clouds overnight will keep temperatures from dropping any farther than the mid-high 30s. Tomorrow will be mild as the warm air moves through to the cold air behind the front. Expect temperatures anywhere from mid-high 40s.

What this also means is LOTS of snow for the Cascade Mountains. A WINTER STORM WARNING is up for the Olympics and Cascades from Monday night to Tuesday at 1PM. The warning calls for 1-2 feet of snow for most elevations. Pass levels may see some mixed freezing rain as freezing levels will fluctuate from 2000-4000 feet from morning to afternoon, falling back down by evening to all snow.

The other part of this story is the wind. A WIND ADVISORY is up from Admiralty Inlet up to the Canadian border. Expect winds 25-35 mph all the way into British Columbia with gusts near 50. The Southern Coast also has a HIGH WIND WARNING up with winds sustained 30-40mph and gusts up to 65.

The book on November is closing fast, and here is a nice summary: Started with record rain on the 1st; 2 days later record heat; 3 weeks later record low temperatures; Finishing it off with a good ole fashioned rainy day. Nothing is better than a La Nina winter in the Northwest.

P.S. Winter starts on December 21^st ;)

Look Ahead: In general the rest of the week looks a tad cyclical as we will have periods of showers mixed with sun-breaks up until the weekend. I have a feeling sun-breaks may dominate toward the end of the week. Weekend doesn’t look half bad right now

A Look Ahead

The weather around this weekend hasn't been too terribly bad. We have had some off and on showers with occasional sunbreaks all around the area. Tomorrow we will begin the process of ushering in a new weather system Monday night into Tuesday. As the front moves through expect some gusty winds throughout the sound, the highest up in the usual places like the San Juans, the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and the coast. Locally gusts into the 30mph range.

The thing to talk about with this system is the rain and the SNOW that it will bring to the mountains. A Winter Storm Watch is up for the mountains where 1-2 feet of snow is expected to fall between Monday afternoon and Tuesday evening. This is for all of the mountain passes so careful driving over the passes for Tuesday. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday offer chances for showers with normals temps around the low-mid 40s. Very standard for November and December weather. :)

11-26 Discussion

Today is the big shopping day and thankfully, that snow we got at the beginning part of the week started melting off yesterday, otherwise there would have been some major problems with the travelers this morning. I myself joined the multitude of crowds trying to find those deals and we were greeted with a good dose of steady rain this morning as a strong cold front moved through the area. That about finished the steady rains for the weekend but we will see occasional showers through Sunday with unstable air in place. Highs will be normal in the mid 40's though so no snow expected for us :) EXCEPT in the mountains where there is still a Winter Storm Warning for the Olympics and Cascades, where over a foot of snow could fall by tonight from yesterday. Occasional snow showers will continue for the mountains through the weekend as well.

Aside, those of you in Spokane also have a Winter Storm Warning in affect. That area will be hit hard with snow over the weekend as temperatures remain below freezing.

Look Ahead:
I can happily say that things look normal for the Northwest for the next 7 days. We will stay in low-mid 40's for most of the week with rain interspersed throughout. We may get windy on Tuesday-Wednesday but it's nothing to be alarmed about. Long range climate predictions keep us at normal temperatures for the next 14 days, and at or below normal for precipiation. :) Enjoy the holiday weekend!

11-23 Discussion

Well, yesterday was one whacky weather day. To apologize to all of you who may have read my weather report (really i only think 2 or 3 did ;) ) but I was pretty far off with my weather report for yesterday. I may have relied just a little too much on model forecasts. But honestly, i have no prior experience forecasting snow to rely on anything else. The National Weather service called for widespread snow, 1-3 inches for western washington. They went more with gut feeling for yesterday understand the models but also understanding what it takes to get snow around here and if any little thing changed with the storm things could get very hairy for most of Washington. And it did. Enough of that, just have to give credit to the people who got it "right" for the most part yesterday. I don't think anyone expected the impact of the storm though.

To explain a little bit more about yesterday. There were a couple of upper level disturbances, what meteorologists call short waves that came down from BC yesterday that caused out morning and evening snow storms. The first was not expected to be as strong as it was and it surprised many by dumping the snow that it did. Also, it came right during the morning commute which couldn't have been worse timing. These "short waves" move very quickly so this storm was out of Western Washington by morning and then, what the NWS was forecasting for, the second storm was aimed to move in by evening. NWS bumped up their forecast to 2-6" after the first storm, always thinking the second would be worse.

However, the path that this storm took, and the strength it intensified too, was not forecasted one bit. It took a path about 100 miles east of model forecasts which was off the WA coast. It came right on top of Western WA and intensified as it came down. At one point to about 999mb (central pressure reading). Not only did it strengthen, IT WAS SLOW!! We got slammed for hours yesterday, not that I need to really tell anyone, with snow. Especially along the Northern edge of the Olympic Peninsula where some areas were measuring snow totals in feet this morning. Incredible.

We also had an interesting weather development yesterday as winds coming from the Frasier Valley in BC (up near Bellingham) came down into the puget sound and warm moist air was coming up from the south, brought up by the low pressure. This creates an unorthodox convergence zone for washington, not a typical one caused by Olympics. It created some "thundersnow" in the Tacoma area where convection of the warm and cold air occured. It is an interesting phenomenom where there is a thundercloud but it's so cold it snows. I've never seen or heard one myself, but I have heard from others it is louder and brighter with snow. Having to do with the snow reflecting the light better and colder air is more dense so it carries sound better. That is something for someone else to lecture on though :).

Now that we are done with that storm, and yes IT IS DONE, we are left with this icy mess. And it won't go away for a couple days. I was reading a weather discussion this morning that said we have had 36 straight hours under freezing, 32 degrees. Well, we have 2 more days of that. Today's high temp is 28 degrees. Yes, 28. Tomorrow you ask? 30. We do start to warm up by Thursday where we could see a rain/snow mix before the warmer air takes over and we start to see just rain. We stay in the low to mid 40 range for the holiday weekend. THE BIG STORY HERE IS THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS! Snow levels will be down to 1000-2000 feet which means snow in all major passes. If you have to get over, bring chains and patience. (Snowboarders and Skiers will be in heaven if you choose to go up to the resorts).

We see a strong weather pattern coming in Friday to Saturday which could bring that major snow to the passes and lots of rain to the lowlands. That is your extra long weather summary. I was working long last night so I got a lot of info about the weather to share with you all (3 people? :) ).

Cool Stats

• On Nov. 3rd, we hit a record tieing 74 degree's for November. On the 22nd, 32 was our high. And forecasted 28 for the 23rd. Thats a 42-46 degree difference. Wow. What a change.
• Set record for snowfall yesterday with 2.7" inches at Sea-Tac.
• Most amount of snow for Sea-Tac before Thanksgiving in last 25 years. 1985 was the last time this has happened.
• Peak Wind gusts
• 72 on Lummi Island
• 65 Belling ham
• 60 Port Townsend

11-21 Discussion

It's Sunday night. I've seen some flurries today around, getting heavy at times but no accumulations here in Bothell. There is a chance for some lingering snow showers through tonight with some local accumulations. There is a Winter Weather Advisory up for all of Western Washington through Monday night and the national Weather Service says any location could accumulate from 1 to 3 inches of snow. Now after looking at models I would have to say the NWS may just be covering it's basis and the majority of snowfall will come south of Olympia. Some models suggest as north Seattle but all suggest South of Olympia. For Monday, it looks like some more showers could be around and the temps will not get past freezing. Up in Bellingham expect some very chilly temps and windy conditions, with some areas having overnight lows into the SINGLE DIGITS. Wowzers

As for Tuesday, VERY COLD for all of the area with temps maybe not creeping past the upper 20s. Bundle up and stay warm. Will be dry throughout Washington so no snow expected

Wednesday some more moisture may enter the area so for now, i would say spotty snow showers may be expected. Still very cold temperatures so no matter what moisture it is, it will be as snow.

After Wednesday, things start to warm up slowly and we get into a warmer pattern Thursday onward. But first, we must get through this cold snap. Stay tuned for any changed!

Uncertain Forecasts

For the past few days, forecasters on TV and for the National Weather Service have been hinting on the possibility of snow this weekend. Well, we had our first big chance last night with Bellingham getting a nice dusting of the white stuff last night as some strong rain swells charged into the San Juans and Whatcom county. Today things will be quite different. We should remain relatively dry for Saturday and it continues to get colder. Temps won't get past 40 for most. A few showers might pop up but there is not much moisture around us. Sunday will start off cold as well, with overnight lows dropping to freezing.

Some discrepencies have arrived about what will happen Sunday night into Monday. A professor at the University of Washington has a great blog that is detailing this http://cliffmass.blogspot.com so I will paraphrase.
Two models, the GFS and NAM, have indicated two different scenarios. The GFS keeps us relatively dry overnight but the NAM indicates more moisture, much more moisture with a low dropping down from BC. This would be a much better scenario for snow but the two models need to be in agreement for us to say if it will snow or not...right now it would be just a guess. When some more model forecasts come out, they do them 4 times a day, we can better assess the situation.

Nonetheless, we still continue to get cold and Tuesday looks like we may have a very hard freeze overnight. Highs Tuesday look to be only at freezing temperatures which means overnight lows will plummet into low 20s and teens.

Enjoy the brisk November weather! La Nina has arrived :)

11-17 Weather Discussion

I may have had to write a book if I wanted to talk all about this weekend's potential for snow...but I'm not feeling like boring you guys half to death will all the mumbo jumbo I could go into. So I'll keep it nice and simple and put down a timeline for y'all!

Wednesday Night: Showers will remain around but taper off late. Expect temps to be right around 40 and maybe a little bit lower in the outlying regions.

Thursday: Showers will pick up again by afternoon and you probably won't see much of any sun tomorrow as the clouds just hover over us. High's won't be getting out of the mid 40's as that stretch of colder weather begins tomorrow. The cold air out of Canada will begin crawling its way down into Whatcom county and that is where we could see some potential flurries for thursday if there is moisture around.

Friday: Cold air will keep filtering in and highs will be in the low 40s or high 30s. We may see some light snow among hilltops during the evening if we get a strong enough snow shower that drops the snow level down. However, we begin a bit of a dry phase here where temperatures will be cold enough for snow but not much rain around

Saturday: Temps start dropping a little more with highs in the 30s.

Sunday: We have some colder temperatures around the sound and by sunday night we may be seeing some snow flurries around the puget sound area. No major accumulations are expected but this is the best chance for lowland snow this weekend.

Want Snow???

Are you really excited about the possibility for snow this weekend?? I have some bad news...and you may not want to read what I have to say. It's doubtful. Now, we are still a few days away so things can change (as they have over the past few days where some people had friday pegged as a day for snow). Models have kinda halted on the really cold air coming in for the Thursday and Friday timeframe. We are headed into a much colder pattern, that is for sure, but it may not come as quickly as we need in order to see some lowland snow. Let's talk about what's going to happen before then.

Tuesday we will be in between the system that came by last night, which brought some intense winds from the south in a very quick fashion, surprising not only TV forecasters but the National Weather Service who didn't put up warnings until about 8pm, and the system coming in Wednesday morning. There is a central low that will be sitting off the BC coast and will bring with it some steady and heavy rain at times, dropping snow levels in the mountains to about 2000 feet. A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for the mountains for Wednesday, with all passes expecting at least 8 inches, some of the higher ones probably getting more than a foot. Be careful going over the passes this week.

Showers will be possible for Thursday and Friday as the Low continues to sag down to the south, very slowly, and will spin the moisture continuously at us. This low is carrying a good amount of cold air out of the arctic, so once it passes, cold air will begin to invade the Northwest. Temperatures will significantly drop by Sunday with potential daytime highs only in the high 30's. Monday and Tuesday offer even colder air and it is a little too early to tell where the moisture will be, but if it is around, my guess right now is we would see snow around the lowlands.

Stay tuned for more updates as they become available. :)

Wacky Wind

Something very new to me happened this afternoon. While a cold front was passing through the region a "lee-wave low" was created east of the Olympics, mainly over Seattle and northern areas. What this did was create a pressure gradient of nearly 3 or 4 milibars difference just 15 miles apart, a very strong gradient in this kind of vicinity. This created very gusty winds coming up from the south, evidenced by the waves crashing over the 520 bridge early this afternoon. Gusts reached 52 at Alki and 46 in Magnolia and at UW. While Everett only reached a gust of 20mph? Huh. Very strange to have such localized wind. Had reports of damage in Mercer Island as well as in the Phinney Neighborhood of Seattle. Here is a good article detailing the days weather details

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blog/108294304.html

11-15 Discussion

“I heard from a friend of mine that it’s going to snow soon! I’m so excited!”

“Did you hear the big news? It’s going to snow next week!!”

Yes, you and I, and about half the state, have heard the buzz going around this past weekend that there is a chance for some snow later this week. I’ll get to that bit of the news, but first, let’s tackle the weather for the next couple of days.

Monday night we will have some lingering showers with temps in the low 40s and breezy around the sound, winds anywhere from 20 to 30mph. For Tuesday, showers should taper off by mid morning and we will remain mostly cloudy and dry for the remainder of the day. We should also see the winds begin to die down by morning hours.

Wednesday brings another rain maker for the lowlands, and the possibility of some HEAVY snow for the mountains. It will get breezy again around the northwest. Thursday has the potential for some lingering showers passing through the area and overcast skies.

And now the cold scenario everyone is dying to hear about. Models have indicated that the time frame of Friday to Monday will be encompassed with some cold air filtering in from Canada. AT THIS POINT, this does not look like a major snow event for the lowlands. Snow levels will be dropping to the 500-1000ft level. Some localized areas may see some flurries, especially up in the north like Whatcom County. The mountains will certainly see some snow if there is moisture falling.

To figure out specific details, 72 hours is a good mark for forecasters to say where and when we might see snow. So stay tuned!

Now go tell your friends and family who have all been spreading those rumors about the worst snow storm in years. This will be a marginal event at best.